So...It would be very easy to jump on the Tim Tebow
bandwagon or the Tebow blasting ship, however here at Fact-Based Football we prefer to let the numbers do the talking. While it cannot be denied that Tebow has had an emotional impact on the Broncos versus the more sedate Orton, I wanted to take a quick, yet more evidence-based view of the Broncos recent success in an attempt to see where the success is coming from.
Here are at least some the factors that have given rise to the recent 4-1 run for the Broncos:
1) Turnovers... -5 vs. +1
During the first 5 games of the season the Broncos were a -5 in turnovers and were negative in 3 of those 5 games. In the last 5 games, the Broncos have been a respectable +1 and have only been negative in 1 game (the blowout by the Lions). This is one area that Tebow definitely helps. With all the talk about inaccuracy we can be sure that so far in his career he has not thrown a lot of "completions" to the opponents.
2) Time of Possession... 26:43 vs. 31:36
Since the bye week, the Broncos have averaged a Time of Possession that is almost 5 minutes greater per game. Quotes from some of the defensive players have suggested they feel fresher with this extra time. This change in time can probably be attributed to.....
3) Rushing... 24-102 vs. 40-208 and 31- 123 vs. 27-105
These are the rounded rushing numbers for the Broncos and their opponents this year. What do we see? Before the bye the Broncos ran 23.6 times per game for 101.8 yards. After the break, they are rushing the ball 39.6 times per game for an average of 208 yards. On the other side of the ball the defense had been giving up 30.6 carries for 123.4 yards per game before the bye and since they are at 27.4 and 104.8. Giving up about 20 yards less per game may not be very significant, but gaining greater than 100 more per game on offense has contributed. Give credit to the Offensive Line, the Coaches, and to the Running QB for helping get this stat up after the bye.
4) Defense...Defense...Defense...
With all the attention and heroics from the offense during the late game comebacks, it might be hard to see how the defense has been perhaps, as great a contributor to the Bronco's turnaround as any factor. Before the break, opponents were completing 22.8 passes per game. After the break it is 21.0, making this a pretty even stat. The noteworthy stat in passing, however, is yards. Before the bye the defense allowed an average of 281.2 yards per game. After the bye, that number is now almost 50 yards less per game at 238.6. Lastly, the all important points statistic. Before the bye the team was averaging 21 points per game. Recently they have averaged 20 points per game. On the defensive side of the ball, before the break, the team was allowing 28 points per game. Now they are allowing only 21, a drop of 7 points per game (this includes the Lion blowout). With so many of the Broncos game being decided by 1 TD or less (7 of their 10 games this year), having the defense give up 7 less points will often be the difference between losing by 4 or winning by 3.
So What is the Point??
While it cannot be denied that changing starting quarterbacks after the bye has had a significant effect on the Broncos, as always there are many factors that we can point to for their recent success besides the QB change. Better ball protection, better coaching, better offensive line play, significantly better defensive play are only the areas I touched upon in this article. In summary, football remains a team game and as long as the Broncos continue to get improved play from many if not all facets of their game, they will continue to challenge for the AFC West title.
Run, pass, block, whatever, let's win the last game of the season... LET'S GO BRONCOS! Cool post.
ReplyDeleteTebow deserves a little more credit.
ReplyDeleteIf Brady Quinn or Kyle Orton remain in there, our offense becomes the same old vanilla scheme and continues to stink the place up. When we run a vanilla running scheme we get stuffed. Just look at the Jets game where we lined the ball up and ran it out of the I or single back formation--we did pretty much nothing out of that.
The new read option offense really opened up the running game, it's a big reason why Lance Ball ran for 90 some yards the other week. He didn't accomplish those yards with his incredible skill and amazing agility alone. The offensive line didn't just amp up their game all of a sudden, it was the new scheme--the kid's fakes are great at times.
The new Timmy Teebs offense has kept our defense fresh. The other week, Champ Bailey stated he "never felt so refreshed," because our offense ran the ball so well. We're keeping our defense fresh out there by eating up the clock, even three and outs by way of running the ball help. With Orton, we would maybe run once and then pass twice -- three and out and the clock is stopped.
The kid is better at managing field position than Orton, how many times did we put our defense in tough spots after the offense didn't move at all? Even one first down generated by Teebs running when all is naught helps our punter out, a run for a first down that Orton could never manage.
Make no mistake, the Broncos just "didn't get better as a team all of a sudden." The QB and the new scheme they made for him deserves a large amount of credit.
This team would still be in dink and dunk vanilla La La land with the "pocket passers" everyone seemed to rave about.
I guarantee, God forbid if something happened to Timmy Teebs, I guarantee our running game will suffer and we will get picked off big-time with Brady Quinn in there. Plus, we'd put our defense in tough spots then too.
Dublinski - Thanks for your comments. I agree that Tebow deserves a lot of credit, however with this article, I was hoping to bring out some of the other areas that deserve credit too. For example, even if he is better at ball security, if the defense allows a ton of long drives, the team doesn't do as well. My point isn't that he didn't make the team better but rather that team, including him, has gotten better.
ReplyDeleteThanks for a great article. Correct on every point. I think Dublinski was agreeing, but pointing out that Tebow (and the changes the coaches made for him) deserves at least some of the credit in all four areas. The only changes to the team after the bye were 1)new QB, 2)traded best receiver away, 3)McGahee's injuries, and 4)new offensive scheme with game #8. The defense has really stepped up, but how much of that has to do with time of possession?
ReplyDeleteGood point, Gary. Intuitively, I agree. It would be a hard analysis to do but I am sure someone smarter than me could do it. That is, they would have to do a correlation between offensive time of possession and defensive points allowed to see how much keeping the ball more translates to less points allowed. Like I said it is for someone smarter than me but I would love to see what it worked out to. Thanks for the comment. Cheers.
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